From Democracy to Military Rule: The Rise of Coups in Francophone Nations 

By Alpha Traore

In the past 3 years, a series of coups have rippled through Francophone nations in  Africa. Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea in West Africa, have all experienced military uprisings that disrupted civilian-led governments. Each event puts a particular accent on the precarious state of governance, security, and democracy in these places commonly marked by complex colonial legacies and fraught post-independence histories. 

In Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, escalating security crises driven by transnational  terrorist threats have deepened public frustration with elected governments. Populations going through relentless violence and economic stagnation in their day-to-day lives tend to view military rule as a better path to restoring order and delivering security than democratic  governments, which in their view have failed to do so. 

For instance, in Mali, ongoing instability has devastated communities, threatening citizens’ safety, livelihoods, and access to basic resources. Jihadist violence in the central  and northern regions has displaced countless families, forcing entire villages to abandon their homes. According to a 2024 report by MSF, entire villages have been abandoned due to these attacks by jihadists, with displaced families seeking refuge in overcrowded urban areas with minimal support. Such conditions drove many Malians to support a military coup in 2021, hoping it would finally bring the security that civilian administrations had long struggled to deliver.

In Burkina Faso, despite campaign promises to prioritize the fight against jihadism, President Kabore’s administration failed completely to counter extremist threats. Throughout 2021, Burkinabe forces remained ill-equipped to address the insecurity. The number of incidents more than doubled between 2020 and 2021 to over 1,100 attacks—greater than the number of violent events recorded in Mali and Niger together over the same period, according to ICCT. This terrorist violence triggered the displacement of nearly 1.5 million people within Burkina Faso, as well as widespread instability in the country. In June 2022, the tragic Solhan massacre occurred and claimed at least 132 lives. That was the breaking point for many Burkinabe citizens. The reasons behind civilians being targeted in this attack were attributed to a combination of factors. Heni Nsaiba, a senior researcher at Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), explains that one factor is retaliation against civilians suspected of collaborating  with security forces. Deeply divided security forces struggled to address the crisis. By the end of 2021, protests erupted across the country, demanding decisive action. Following this mounting discontent, Lieutenant-Colonel Damiba led a military coup in January 2022.

In Niger, President Bazoum was overthrown by General Tchiani and the Presidential  Guard in 2023, making the third central Sahel state to succumb to military rule after Mali and Burkina Faso. The junta justified its actions by citing the deteriorating security situation, even though the country had fared better than its neighbors in reducing levels of violence. However, persistent threats from groups like IS Sahel, JNIM, and Boko Haram continued to destabilize vast regions of the country, including Tillaberi, Diffa, and Tahoua. Public frustration with relentless violence, coupled with economic hardship and anti-French sentiments fueled by perceptions of foreign interference, created fertile ground for the coup’s acceptance among segments of the population.

While all the other three countries dealt with escalating security crises, Guinea faced a different challenge rooted in political governance and democratic principles. As Guinea’s first democratically elected president in 2010, former President Alpha Condé’s controversial attempt to run for a third term in 2020 was seen as a betrayal of public trust. His decision to amend the constitution to allow him to run for a third term in office was immediately faced by protests all over the country. This move was widely perceived as a violation of democratic principles and an attempt to consolidate personal power, which ironically undermined the very democratic processes that allowed him to lead the country for ten years. The ensuing protests, characterized by calls for constitutional reform and the restoration of democratic norms, were met with violent repression by security forces, further intensifying public anger. As political tensions went up and opposition figures were increasingly sidelined or arrested, the military, led by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, seized power in September 2021, just days after Condé’s re-election in a contested poll.

Historically, the persistence of these instabilities is tied to the unresolved legacy of colonialism. As Frederick Cooper, a historian specializing in African and colonial history  explains, “Africa was subjugated by the aggressors in ways that continue to hold it back even today, but not without putting up a fierce and brave resistance for the most part.” This legacy disrupted traditional governance systems, imposed arbitrary borders that continue to fuel ethnic conflicts, and established economies designed to serve colonial powers rather than fostering self-sufficiency. Newly independent nations inherited weak institutions, underdeveloped infrastructure, and limited educational systems, making it challenging to establish stable democracies or thriving economies.

Furthermore, Jean-Francois Bayart, a prominent scholar on African politics, observes, “the salient feature of the last three centuries is not the growing integration of Africa into the western world economy but, on the contrary, the latter’s inability to pull the continent into its magnetic field”. This observation underscores a paradox: while Africa remains marginalized in global economic systems, former colonial powers like France continue to exert influence through mechanisms like economic aid and military intervention. For instance, in 2014 France came up with Operation Barkhane in Mali, aimed to combat terrorism. Though it was widely unpopular among the Malian population, it lasted for 8 years. Instead of fostering long-term stability, it only reinforced dependency on external powers, hindering Mali’s ability to assert full autonomy. 

This external presence often breeds local resentment, especially when post-independence leaders are perceived as more accountable to foreign interests than to their  own people. Bayart’s insight that “the relationship of power to social stratification is clearly somewhat different, now that the governing circles of the continent are more or less integrated into the world capitalist economy” underscores the complexity of contemporary political dynamics. Consequently, military coups are not only a direct response to immediate governance issues, but also a symptom of deeper, unresolved tensions stemming from a colonial past that left nations divided, economically dependent, and politically fragile. 

These events raise critical questions about the future of democracy and sovereignty in regions where military leaders, often in their 40s, claim to represent popular aspirations more effectively than civilian administrations. International actors, including France and the wider European Union, find themselves in a difficult position, uncertain whether to condemn these military takeovers outright or attempt engagement in hopes of fostering stability. Traditional responses—sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and conditional aid often exacerbate economic hardship without resolving underlying political grievances. The outcomes in these regions will resonate far beyond their borders, challenging international norms and prompting a re-evaluation of how global powers engage with nations striving to reconcile their past with their aspirations for a sovereign and democratic future.